Harmoni-CA ~ Harmonised Modelling Tools for Integrated Basin Management

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	Harmoni-CA is a research project supported by the European Commission under the Fifth Framework Programme and contributing to the implementation of the Key Action "Sustainable Management and Quality of Water" within the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development. Contract no: EVK1-2001-00192

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	Www.toolbox.info/Toolbox/Model Uncertainty/How/Modelling process.php	Overview

How to select the appropriate methodology for uncertainty assessment?

Methodologies according to modelling process and level of ambition

Table 1 provides a list of applicable methodologies that are considered to be adequate for the different tasks/steps in the modelling process that where previously described. Furthermore, it includes hints for which methodologies are more suitable for comprehensive analysis with relatively large economic resources for the study and which methodologies correspond to a lower level of ambition (denoted as “basic” in the Table).

Table 1 Suitable methodologies to deal with uncertainty at various stages of a modelling process

Type of uncertainty aspect	Task in the modelling process (cf. Fig. 2)	Level of ambition/available resources
Type of uncertainty aspect	Task in the modelling process (cf. Fig. 2)	Basic	Comprehensive
Identify and characterise sources of uncertainty	Describe Problem and Context (Step 1)	UM	EPE, SI, UM
Identify and characterise sources of uncertainty	Determine Requirements (Step 1)	UM	EPE, SI, UM
Modeller reconsiders uncertainty and performance criteria	Prepare and Evaluate Tender (Step 1)	(Update of) UM + Common sense
	Reporting (Step 2)
	Reporting (Step 3)
	Reporting (Step 4)
	Reporting (Step 5)
	Specify or Update Calibration and Validation Targets and Criteria (Step 3)
Reviews-dialogue-decisions	Agree on Model Study Plan and Budget
	Review of Step 2	QA	EPR, QA
	Review of Step 3	QA	EPR, QA
	Review of Step 4	QA	EPR, QA
	Review of Step 5	QA	EPR, QA
Uncertainty assessment and propagation	Uncertainty Analysis of Calibration and Validation (Step 4)	DA, EPE, SA	DA, EPE, EE, IN-PA, IN-UN, MCA, MMS, NUSAP, SA
Uncertainty assessment and propagation	Uncertainty Analysis of Simulation (Step 5)	DA, EPE, SA	DA, EPE, EE, IN-UN, MCA, MMS, NUSAP, SC,SA, SI

Abbreviations of methodologies:

DA Data Uncertainty

EPE Error Propagation Equations

EE Expert Elicitation

EPR Extended Peer Review (review by stakeholders)

IN-PA Inverse modelling (parameter estimation)

IN-UN Inverse modelling (predictive uncertainty)

MCA Monte Carlo Analysis

MMS Multiple Model Simulation

NUSAP NUSAP

QA Quality Assurance

SC Scenario Analysis

SA Sensitivity Analysis

SI Stakeholder Involvement

UM Uncertainty Matrix

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